Behind Biplab’s bomb

Less than three weeks after Puspha Kamal Dahal ‘Pra­chanda’ warned that a ‘new Maoist force could emerge with devastating consequences for the country if the peace process was not honestly implemented,’ Kathmandu Valley was rocked by the explosion of an improvised bomb that took the life of one person and injured two others. The explosion brought back trag­ic and painful memories of the 10-year-long civil war. Many see a connection between the two (more on this a little later).The attack on Ncell, a large and symbolic foreign direct invest­ment in the telecom sector, also comes several weeks before the Investment Summit aimed at attracting more foreign investors. The attack sends wrong messages on so many levels. It harms the country’s attempt to tell the world that Nepal has begun a new chap­ter and is open for business. More damagingly, it indicates another cycle of political or even state fail­ure—underscoring Nepal’s fragili­ty, whatever politicians say about a strong government.

 

The Maoists of all stripes have identical positions on transitional justice

Even before the Netra Bikram Chand Biplab-led Maoists took responsibility, it was an open secret. It had all the telltale signs of a strategy right out of the Maoist playbook. But that knowl­edge raises more questions than it answers.

Why now? What is the trigger? Why target Ncell in particular, even though there have been oth­er instances of attack against Indi­an investments?

The question of timing goes to the heart of Prachanda’s state­ment on Venezuela last month. The ensuing spat between him and the prime minister saw a hardening of stance of former and current Maoists. It all boils down to how the government plans to handle the transitional justice issue, the pressure from the inter­national community and the fear of Prachanda and the current and former Maoists.

Whatever their differences, all Maoists of all stripes, including Baburam Bhattarai and Biplab, have identical positions on transi­tional justice: None of them wants to be labeled as a perpetrator of grave rights violations and face punishment, even though such a punishment may only be symbol­ic—a road the prime minister and his team appear inclined to take. While the government is report­edly planning to set up a special court to deal with all war-era cas­es and mete out symbolic punish­ments, Prachanda wants all such cases withdrawn and symbolic justice meted out to a select few the former Maoists are willing to give up as a sacrifice.

Complicated between comrades

The relationship between Pra­chanda, Home Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa Badal, Biplab and Mohan Baidya, the Maoist ideologue and mentor, is com­plex. Clearly Baidya and Biplab are unhappy with Prachanda and Badal. But to suggest that their relationship is one of pure hos­tility would be naïve. On the sur­face, Badal has cracked down on Biplab’s factions by arresting key leaders with deliberate publicity. But he has also quietly released them using a low profile govern­ment talks team led by Parlia­mentarian Som Prasad Pandey. In recent days, the new Maoists have broken off contact with the talk team.

One wonders why a former Maoist commander and current Home Minister—who used the state crackdown as a recruitment tool during his rebellion days—would allow his former comrade to use the same playbook. Those who argue Badal does not realize he is repeating the mistake of for­mer Home Minister Khum Baha­dur Khadka do not fully appre­ciate the advantage of having an armed faction on the outside for the Maoist half of the NCP. The merger between CPN-UML and the Maoists was one of conve­nience. If the Maoist half prevails, they are likely to come out with a larger faction than they went in with. Perhaps that is why they have asked the Election Commis­sion not to give their former party name and symbol to anyone.

This raises the question: Are Prachanda and his team keep­ing Biplab-led faction outside the big NCP tent for a particular pur­pose? While it is difficult to rule out these sequences of events as purely coincidental, one hopes our leaders, both ruling and in the opposition, including the armed factions, would not subject the country to another vicious cycle of violence and instability.